Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Just a Small Sample of Luskin's Terrible Calls...

In 2007, Luskin assures us that "the best and the brightest" are "outbidding" each other to buy subprime loans...

“I’ve got 55 institutional clients who are the best and the brightest and half of them are organizing right now to raise money for new funds that are going to be vulture capitalist funds that are going to buy all the subprime stuff at cents on the dollar. They’re outbidding each other to take this stuff out of weak hands and put it into strong hands. There’s so much money in the world, it’s going to absorb this problem just like it’s absorbed all of the others these past few years.”—April 2, 2007/CNBC/DOW 12,382

And that the "housing adjustment" was going to "work through"...

“Eventually, the housing adjustment--as the FED likes to call it--is going to work through; the FED is going to start raising rates. When they do--when they’re about to--then it’s going to be time to sell. Not today, today is the time to buy.”—April 2, 2007/CNBC/DOW 12,382

And that "peasants" are working to "get our paper money"...

“Billions of peasants worldwide are willing to work in poorly lit poorly ventilated factories just to get our paper money because it’s that precious.”—July 2, 2007/CNBC (DOW 13,535)

And that his "model" will tell him when it's "duck and cover time"...

“You stick with the model. You take it as long as the very few trustiest, most reliable indicators that you follow are telling you to stay invested, and when they turn the other way you just face reality and you say, ok, we’re in for ah, duck and cover time. But I just don’t see that. I agree with Dr. Siegel I think you still want to be long stocks. It’s still the long-run.”—October 22, 2007/CNBC/DOW 13,566 (seven sessions after the stock market had topped)

And that stocks will "go up"...

“We have, in most ways, a perfectly reasonable credit situation right now.” “We’re not in any kind of real credit crunch.” “Stocks are ridiculously undervalued, the pessimism is so thick they’ve just got to go up and they will.”—August 28, 2008/CNBC/DOW 11,715

And that "you have to buy stocks"...

“I am so bullish, we hit a disequilibrium on Monday’s close between stocks and bonds, it’s the largest in history, you have got to sell bonds, you have got to buy stocks.”—November 29, 2007/CNBC/Dow 13,311

And in 2008, more of the same...

"We're seeing a little slow-down, like we've seen several times in this expansion that is the lagged result of the credit crisis that started six or seven months ago, and for all the reasons you just pointed out Larry, this credit crisis is actually healing even though the real economy is just now experiencing the wave front of the problems that started long-ago. You've got to be buying stocks here. There is just an absolute panic going on. You've just gotta buy em. This is just total capitulation." You do not want to be selling stocks here, especially when they're so cheap."--January 11, 2008/CNBC/DOW 12,606 (six sessions later the DOW traded down to 11,634)

(Larry Kudlow)..."is it going to be a bad second half of the year? Should people get the heck out? Should long-term investors get out? I mean, on a Friday night after a week like this, these are the things folks are going to be talking about in their living rooms, in front of their TV sets as they watch Kudlow and Company...what can you say to them Don?"

(Don Luskin) "All right, I got three points for those people. One, since the October 9th top, the financial sector of the S&P is down 42 percent. If you take those stocks out, the rest of the S&P is only down 11 percent. Now being down 11 percent is no buggy-ride but it's also no bear market--so don't let one sector stink up the joint. Number two let's talk about sentiment. When you are on a show like this and the host asks you 'are stocks doomed?' the very fact that he asks you means the answer is no. People ask that questions at bottoms, they do not ask it at tops. Number three, you are dead right that the issue here is the dollar but it's not so much a question of the dollar stopping going down. The dollar has stopped going down. It made its bottom on Bear Sterns Monday and it's been gradually higher ever since. The question is getting it up, not just keeping it from going down. We need a committment from Ben Bernanke to raise rates and take back those mistaken rate cuts from the last nine months."--June 27, 2008

As he picks yet another bottom...

“What a wonderful test of the lows this was” “There is no recession going on here.”—September 5, 2008/CNBC/DOW 11,220

And says Lehman doesn't matter...

“Who is this Lehman Brothers? Who are they, the guys who make the cough drops? A week from now things are going to look a lot better. Throw a dart and buy anything right now, we’ve got a panic on our hands. I’m telling you, you’ve got to buy em, you’ve got to buy em, you’ve got to buy em.”—September 9, 2008/CNBC/DOW 11,230

And to "close your eyes and buy em"...

“A week from now everything’s going to look a lot better, just close your eyes and buy em.”—September 9, 2008/CNBC/DOW 11,230 (One week later DOW is at 10,917 and 23 sessions later the DOW plunges as low as 7884 and closes at 8451.)

And that AIG is simply "cash strapped"...

“The FED was born to create bridge loans to cash-strapped but viable companies, that’s what AIG is, a cash strapped but viable company.”—September 16, 2008/CNBC/DOW 11,059

And Blah, Blah, Blah...

“I think they’re going to open higher. We had a panic on our hands here. The S&P traded down to the very bottom of the declining trend channel that began last October. I think we’re going to see a couple of days of trading around within the trading range that was established yesterday while we wait and see what Washington does.”—September 29, 2008/CNBC/DOW 10,365 (During the next 9 sessions the DOW loses 24%, plunging to the 7884 level)


This guy is unreal. Always talking, always cocky, always arguing, and always WRONG!


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